Iron Condors and Volatility

Question:

In your lesson you said that volatility is not good for options trading since you trade within  a statistical mean. If you do condor trades don’t you need volatility?  Won’t you make more money or will out of the money be the same at any price?

My answer:

The higher the volatility, the higher the option prices.
But in a condor, volatility is not as important as price action.
If volatility drops, we can exit the condor trade faster. But if it rises it just means we have to be in the trade longer. Volatility is more important in trades like calendars where it can destroy the trade if it drops too much.

Option Trading Books Reading List

What are Some Good Books on Option Selling?

What should you do if you are interesting in learning more about option selling?

The best way to get started is to read a few good books on the subject.

When I first got started I went to an expensive seminar. After two days I knew enough about options to be dangerous – to my myself. After trying to trade options based on what I had learned at the seminar I realized, after losing a lot of money, that there was more to it.

So I started researching books on options, videos online, websites, etc. Here are some of the best books I found on options and trading in general.

Options Books

One of the most advertised books is The Complete Guide to Options Selling: How Selling Options Can Lead to Stellar Returns in Bull and Bear Markets by James Cordier and Michael Gross. It goes into detail about option writing strategies that can improve your profit. It reviews all of the basic mechanics of selling options and profiting as well as strategies that are insider-quality, easy to follow, and that have a high-probability approach. The book is written to appeal to the new investor, not a mathematician. In this book you can look forward to learning why selling options is more profitable than buying, and specific strategies for selecting various types of markets. Keep in mind that this book is about futures options, not equity options.

One of the first books I got was Options As A Strategic Investment by Lawrence Mcmillan. I would say this is the “bible” of options books. Why? Because it is huge and covers all the basics of option trading and then some.

Most option books cover the basic strategies but they leave out when you should use these strategies and what to do when the trade goes bad. Very few books talk about adjusting trades. The best one I found that does is The Option Trader’s Handbook – Strategies and Trade Adjustments by George Jabbour and Philip Budwick.

My favorite book on Option Selling is Generate Thousands In Cash On Your Stocks Before Buying or Selling Them, by Samir Elias. I myself have only used a couple chapters of this book but it was a very interesting with good ideas.

Wall Street Money Machine by Wade Cook is also a good read. But read this book for motivation only. Most of the examples and numbers in this book were over exaggerated but still, I liked it and enjoyed it when I was starting out so you might too. Most of the book was on covered calls.

A couple other “should” read book on option volatility are Option Volatility and Pricing by Sheldon Natenberg, and The Volatility Edge in Options Trading by Jeff Augen. Both are technical and for advanced options traders.

Books On Trading

How To Trade In Stocks by Jesse Livermore is a must read. Livermore was the best stock trader of all time and his strategies are now copied by just about every firm on Wall Street.

Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom by Van Tharp is good to give you some basic guidelines on trading.

Trading For A Living by Alexander Elder is also very good. I have all of Elder’s books even though they focus a lot on technical investing, he does show how traders with different styles can all make money if they get the basics right.

Google (GOOG) Going to $600

A little over a year ago I went to one of those free trading seminars provided by companies that want you to sign up for their coaching or training.

The concept they were teaching was day trading and so it did not interest me very much, but a couple things the speaker said were very interesting. The guy’s name was Tom Busby.

He said that once a stock breaks a hundred $ level for the first time it zooms up 10%.  For example, once a stock breaks through $100 it is going to $110. When it breaks through $200 it is going to $220, etc.

I had heard this before somewhere so I started looking it up. It turns out that Jesse Livermore mentioned this in one of his books. Livermore was probably the best trader of all time.

So now with two reference points I decided this was something worthy of looking into. So I started doing some research.  It turns out, that this theory/rule is true.

I checked with over 40 companies that broke through either $100, $200, or $300 and  84% of then did eventually hit $110, $220, or $330. The average time it took was 4 months. Some did it much faster and the slowest took 8 months, but it got there.

One thing I noticed is that this does not work all the time. It works only in bull markets. And this was also a limited sample.

If this theory holds, then Google (GOOG) is poised to hit $660, and Apple (AAPL) is going to hit $220. As I write this, Apple (AAPL) is already above $209 so $220 is not much of a stretch.

How should you play this?

1. You can buy the stock and wait.

2. You can buy a call option on Google (GOOG) at 660 with at least 4 months of time left to expiration.

3. You can sell puts month after month until Google (GOOG) starts to decline.

All 3 methods have their pluses and minuses. I am already long the stock, and have sold the Jan 560/570 put spread. As long as the bull market stays intact, I can sell more puts.  When Google (GOOG) breaks below the 50 day moving average, I plan on selling my stock and looking for another company to play.

What is a LEAPS Option?

LEAPS refers to Long Term Equity AnticiPation Security.  These are options that consist of longer terms than average, as in the date of expiration.  LEAPS are not as common as other options but are still available on roughly 2,500 equities and 20 indexes.  However, like short-term options, LEAPS are also available for calls or puts. 

Options for LEAPS are traditionally created with expiration cycles of three months, six months or nine months, with no option term exceeding a year’s worth of time.  While there might be some exceptions now, traditional LEAPS are still the majority.  LEAPS are relatively new to the market and may extend as long as 2-3 years out.  As is the general rule, the farther away the expiration date, the more expensive the option is.  LEAPS are also available for indices now, as opposed to merely equities.

LEAPS are popular tools of investors who hope to reduce their risks.  The LEAPS strategy makes it possible for investors to manage risk and protect pricing by buying out put protection.  Obviously, using LEAPS does not guarantee success, as nothing in the market is ever 100% sure.  However, having more time on your contract for the position to work is a positive.

There are also other advantages to using LEAPS.  LEAPS lets you take an alternative route to stock ownership.  It allows you to benefit from price rises, while also risking less capital, as opposed to ordinary share-purchasing.  If the stock price increases to a level that is higher than the exercise price stated by the LEAPS contract, then the buyer has the right to purchase shares below the market price.  Then the investor can turn around and sell back the LEAPS calls for a much higher profit.

The buyer is also able to use these calls to diversify his or her portfolio.  Historically speaking, the market tends to reward investors in the long-term.  Most investors do not purchase shares in every single company they follow.  They carefully select according to market performance and research.  What’s nice about a LEAPS call is that once bought you have the right to purchase shares of stock at a specified period of time—or even up to three years into the future. 

LEAPS contracts also allow investors the opportunity to hedge their current stock holdings.  So if you are thinking about potential price drops on stock that you own, know that LEAPS options let you sell the underlying product at the strike price.  You can also do this at any time, up to the expiration date.

Are there any negatives to using LEAPS options?  Risks are limited, but still existent.  You have to invest the price you paid for the position.  If you are an uncovered seller of LEAPS calls or puts there is actually unlimited risk.  The risk generally varies according to what strategy you take.

It is important for investors to fully understand fully the risk of LEAPS as well as how this financial tool can work in your favor.  If you are willing to stick around for the long-haul, you may find LEAPS very beneficial.

One way to use LEAPS is in a covered call in exchange for stock. You can buy a LEAPS online for expiration in Jan a year or two away and sell current month options against it. The current month option will provide monthly income while the stock may appreciate in value. Thus, the value of the LEAPS will go up, while you make money month after month.

Credit vs Debit Spread—Which is Better?

Are you wondering which is better: option trades that result in a credit or trades that result in a debit?  Simply put, you’re asking whether you should choose a credit spread or debit spread strategy.  Let’s consider both options in more detail. 

A credit spread (also called a net credit spread) involves the investor selling one option then buying another option.  The second option is in the same class and also shares the same expiry date.  However, there are different strike prices between the two options.  In this instance, the new investor gets a net credit for entering this position.  He is looking forward to the spreads either narrowing or expiring in order to get a profit.  A credit spread is basically a conservative strategy in investment.  It is designed to earn a moderate level of income while also limiting your potential loss.  In this circumstance, you are buying and selling options on the same index in the same month.  Remember, the only thing different is the strike price.  The most common credit spreads are the Bull Put Spread and the Bear Call Spread.

What about debit spreads?  First of all, investors have to pay to enter a debit spread (or net debit spread).  This option is when the investor buys an option with a higher premium but must sell the option for a lower premium.  How will this bring profit?  Because the investor is hoping that the premium of his two options will widen due to the market.

Another issue to consider is that of what type of strategy you are going for with credit or debit spreads; as in bull or bear?  The bull or bear strategy involves doing what you’re doing—selecting selling two options, but choosing both call or put options, and with the same expiration dates.  (The strike prices can be different)  The basic philosophy of bullish in stocks is that you buy low and sell high, which can be called an optimistic outlook, or bearish, buy high and sell low, which is a pessimistic approach.  Both of these may work with any given strategy.

When you bring credit/debit into the equation, there are more issues to resolve.  First know that with a credit spread, the required margin will be the same as the difference between both strike prices.  This is the most you can lose.  Your capital requirement will be reduced since you can apply the credit of premium to the margin.  Now let’s consider debit spreads on the opposite end of the spectrum.  These are called debit spreads because your broker is actually going to debit your account for the net premium, as opposed to giving you credit.  The most you lose with the debit spread is the premium net.  Gains are limited and this option does not require a margin.

In deciding which works better for you consider the time value involved.  If you know a stock or underlying is going to move in a certain direction and you know to what price a debit spread can result in more profit. On the other hand, if all you know is a stock is going to move in one direction or not much, than you can place your trade in the other direction.

Let’s look at an example. If you use technical analysis, you can determine support and resistance lines, as well as trendlines. Say a stock is trending up and has support at $50 and is trading at $54.39 right now.

You feel the stock is going to go higher but you do not know by when. Your best bet is to sell a 50/45 Put spread. You sell the 50 put and buy the 45 put in the same month. For the sake of the example, you will trade the current month with the fewest days to expiration. As long as this stock stays above $50 you make the full amount of the credit.

If you think the stock is going to go to $60 in 2 weeks, you can use a debit spread. You would buy the 55 call and sell the 60 call in the same month. You would get the max profit if the stock is above $60 at expiration. But if the stock does not move up, your options will lose value everyday and eventually expire worthless.

With a credit spread, if the stock does not move, you still make money.

Basically we are talking about two sides of the same coin. A debit spread for one trader is a credit spread for another.

“The Iron Condor is not boring.”

Hi, I just went through the course.  I have a question on the iron condor.  I had subscribed to another site that did those.  They said they picked strike prices far away from the current price so that the odds were better than 90% that they would make money.  Of course the market started to gyrate 100s of points per day and everyone was holding their breath for days. So I learned that these spread trades are not boring at all but can be extremely stressful.  I was glad to see that you weren’t just touting you make money 90% of the time.  I see that all the time but they fail to explain that you can lose 100% of your money up to 10% of the time.  That makes the strategy not conservative at all.  So my question is how much capital would you allocate to iron condors?  Also, in your example, when the price dropped near the lower strike price you closed out the options on that side and then entered into new options just farther down in price.  I can’t figure out why that couldn’t be done all the time so you really could have entered into this trade even when the market was swinging wildly in Oct.  I guess a follow up to that is how did you end up losing 30+% in that one month?  It would be great to learn what can go wrong.  Thanks.

First you have to limit your loss. 100% loss is not acceptable. I am out of a trade when I am down around 20%. The month I lost was a very large, sharp, quick, move. That is the worst enemy of the condor.
 
Most months you have no problems, like this month. i though it would be wild, but even with earnings I have not had to adjust my condors at all. Both are doing nicely.
 
If the price moves towards my strikes, at a certain point I will roll the options away from the money. That is a simple adjustment and one of the ways that help me to stay in the trade and profit even when the market does move. But last September, it was just too much too fast and i just got out of the market instead of try to play with it. I took my loss and exited. Which saved me because Oct was another horrible month for the condor. Through experience I felt that the market was not acting correctly and stayed out of the market.

The Calendar Spread

In my last post I listed a Free Trade on POT which is called a Calendar Spread, also known as a Time Spread.

In that trade we sold the Oct 90 Calls and Bought the Nov 90 Calls.

The trade makes money when POT stays in range around 90. Basically what we want is the Oct option to decay and lose value while the Nov option (which we bought) retains its value. Time Decay quickly erodes an option’s value, especially in the last 30 days. That is why I prefer to put these types of trades on with 30 or fewer days left for the front month.

We enter this trade with a debit meaning we paid for the trade. That is because the Nov option was more expensive than the Oct option because the Nov option has more time premium.  POT also has earnings after the Oct option expires which means that the volatility (value) of the Nov option will be elevated (at least a little more than normal).

What we want is for POT to stay in between the break evens until it gets close to expiration. The Oct option loses value everyday and that is how we make money. During the last few days before expiration the fluctuations in prices can move wildly.  That is why I prefer to be out of this trade before expiration week. But in this trade we put it on pretty late and will have to stay in longer.

To exit a Calendar Spread you have to sell it. Otherwise you will still be holding the back month (Nov) option even if the front month (Oct) expires.

The beauty of Calendar Spreads is that they are cheap to trade, easy to adjust, and can result in large profits – 20-40% is common. You can also keep your losses small.

How Do You Scan For Trades?

Hello OptionGenius.

I have been trading credit spreads for about 3 months now with some success.  I read the nine part  course and realize that my past training didn’t discuss much about selection of trades and adjustment of trades.  When I was looking around the website, I saw a brief reference on how you scan for and pick your trade opportunities, how you use the mathematical models with standard deviation to help your selection and how to determine exit points., but there weren’t too many details on these topics.   Do you share the information about scans, about the mathematical models and how to use them as the subscriptions move along?

Eric,

For credit spreads most traders use technical analysis to find support and resistance and use those levels to pick strikes. I have found that, that strategy works except when it doesn’t. support and resistance are guidelines not walls that the stock will not go through and so you will do fine for several months until one month, something happens that was not expected and you lose big on your credit spreads and that wipes out all the profit from the prior months. Credit spreads are pretty dangerous. They are hard to adjust because you are hoping the support stays in place.
 
For example, I have a credit spread on right now in my personal account. It is a POT Oct 85/80 Put credit spread. So I want Pot to stay above 85 at expiration which is 10 days away. yesterday, POT got to 85 and change. Today it is back to 88.80. So the resistance held,(lucky for me). But if I had tried to adjust the trade I would have gotten killed. Credit spreads, from my experience, are trades you put on, wait and take them off if they are going to be a large loss or a total win. There is not much in between.
 
For the other income strategies, you look for stocks.indexes/etfs that are channeling – moving in a sideways direction. any of the strategies can be used on such a stock. But the best thing to do is to focus on a few – maybe 10 that you get very familiar with and trade those month after month. Blue Chip Dow 30 stocks are usually good candidates – MCD, WMT, KO, PEP, XOM, PG, etc. Their volatility is lower and the prices are high enough to make the options have enough premium to work with.
 
But stay away from earnings. Don’t do income trades during earnings.

Study Shows Collar Strategies Outperform Buy And Hold

The Options Industry Council Announces New Study Finds Collar Strategies Outperform Buy And Hold

Chicago – September 23, 2009

The results of a new study examining the use of options in a collar strategy (both active and passive implementations) on the PowerShares QQQ™ exchange-traded fund (ETF) show it provides superior returns to the traditional buy and hold strategy while reducing risk by almost 65%.

The Options Industry Council (OIC) is pleased to note the study reaffirms the risk management potential of equity options, finding that during the entire 10-year study period, including the sub-periods around the tech bubble and credit crisis, collars significantly outperformed the QQQ, providing much needed capital protection.

“Loosening Your Collar: Alternative Implementations of QQQ Collars,” by Edward Szado and Thomas Schneeweis, looked at data from March 1999 to May 2009. It concluded that over the entire 122 month period the passive collar returned almost 150%, while the QQQ lost one-third of its value. The active collar outperformed both strategies and returned more than 200%.

Additionally, the study simulated a collar on a small-cap mutual fund. The return of the active mutual fund collar was four times the return of the fund, while the standard deviation was about one-third lower. The study was conducted by the Isenberg School of Management’s Center for International Securities and Derivatives Markets (CISDM) at the University of Massachusetts.

This is the third in a series of studies OIC has helped to support, studies which demonstrate the effectiveness of implementing options strategies on specific products over specific time periods covering a variety of market conditions. By supporting these studies in cooperation with CISDM, OIC remains dedicated to its mission of providing education and research to institutional investors. The study is available to all  investors at www.optionseducation.org/institutional/research/pdfs/qqq_collar_study.pdf.

About OIC
OIC is an industry cooperative funded by the Boston Options Exchange, Chicago Board Options Exchange, International Securities Exchange, NASDAQ OMX PHLX, NASDAQ Options Market, NYSE Amex Options, NYSE Arca Options, and The Options Clearing Corporation. OIC was formed in 1992 to educate investors and their financial advisors about the benefits and risks of exchange-traded equity options. OIC’s resources include: The Options Industry Services Help Desk at 1-888-OPTIONS, educational Web sites at www.OptionsEducation.org, www.OptionsEducation.org/advisor and www.OICoptions.com, evening seminars throughout the continental United States and Canada, instructional DVDs and educational literature and software.

Buying Calls/Puts to Lower Delta

Great question from a member:

Last time with MCD position you opened another Butterfly to bring the Delta Neutral. Which I have been following and I thought it is very interesting. And maybe that’s the reason to raise me this question.
So my question is related to Iron Condor. Why do usually we close the

 position and open a new one when the price comes after us, instead

of adding some positions to bring the Delta Neutral.
For example: our last RUT we closed 640/650 and opened 660/670.

If we had keep 640/650 and add something to bring the Delta low levels

 again would have similar effect??
I know since we are just handling low quantity is more difficult to create this kind of sceneario, but assuming that the quantity would be greater, do you think that the mechanism of adding positions to bring the Delta low has the same effect as to roll up/down the position?
Just trying to get a better understand from the options world.
 
Tks a lot,
 
Paulo

Excellent question.
 
You are right, the same adjustment can be used in a condor. You can add options to lower the delta. That is one of the adjustments I look at. And it can work. But it depends on what is going on in the market. This month, the market was advancing regularly. Just about everyday it was going up. Adding some calls would only protect the deltas for a couple days and we would then have to do something else. That is why I moved the calls. It is a more drastic adjustment but I thought it was warranted in this environment. if you have a condor where the market makes a huge move upwards in a day and it might go back down, that is when you can add some calls to lower your deltas. Or if there is fear of a big move you can lower your deltas before the move so that no matter what happens you do not get hurt. You can then remove the bought options after the fear has passed.
 
Allen