Happy Thanksgiving!

Hope you have a wonderful, happy, and well rested holiday!

Here is an update of the MCD and JNJ butterfly trades I showed you in my last video. Had to make an adjustment to each because of the strong down move in the market which also affected these stocks.

Here is a trade I just put on in my personal account.

The stock is NLY. The trade is a simple Put credit spread

Sell to Open Oct 16 Puts (.40)

Buy To Open Oct 15 Puts (.26) for a credit of .14 cents per spread.

Trade has a 74% probability of success. And can make 16.2% if left to expiration.

NLY is a financial company but a very boring stock. I love owning this one as well because it pays a little over 10% dividend right now.

So here is how the trade works: If NLY is above 16 on expiration day (right now it is trading at 17.68) I make the whole 16.2% minus whatever commissions I paid to get into the trade. If NLY is below 16 and above 15 I will be assigned the stock if I don’t exit the trade. Again, I don’t mind owning this stock. if NLy is below [...]

It’s been a few days and GLD continues moving up slowly.

The weekly calendar needed to be adjusted but since it expires today I am not posting the picture here.

The Oct/Nov Calendar is still within the breakevens. It is trading right now at $126.72 and the upside breakeven is $127.95. Here is what the trade looks like right now. Notice how it has gotten close to the upside breakeven.

GLD Option Calendar Spread

If I add the 128 Oct/Nov Calendar it will look like this:

GLD Calendar Spread Update

This will center GLD in our trade and extend the breakevens. But I am going to hold off making this adjustment until GLD moves up a bit closer.

When adjusting you need to look at multiple factors. Time decay is working in our favor and so holding off on an adjustment can result in a higher yield. Also, even though the trade is far from [...]

Here is a trade I am looking at today.

Iron Condor in YUM:

Sell 6 Sept 46 Calls,   Buy 6 Sept 48 Calls

Sell 6 Sept 42 Puts, Buy 6 Sept 40 Puts

Thinkorswim is showing the mid price to be .18 cents. So the credit would be $108 and the margin would be $1092. That means the potential ROI is 9.8%. There are 9 days left to expiration. With so little time left, there is no room for adjustments so the trade would be to ride it to expiration.

The breakevens are 41.86 and 46.20. As long as YUM expires within these two breakevens, the trade is profitable. The trade has a 65.15% probability of making money.

This one would be a good one to papertrade. The one downside on this iron condor is the commissions. If you are paying too much for commissions, this trade does not have the proper risk/reward. In your case you would [...]

Would you like a 17% one day return?

That’s what one of my members got today. He actually did much better than I did. I am still in this trade. He was able to get in at a much better price than I did yesterday and already exited the trade today.

The trade is a butterfly on IBM. For members, it is May Trade #2

I got into the trade for a debit of 1.24, but this member got in at 1.15. For 4 contracts his cost was $460.

He sold the butterfly and exited the trade for 1.35 today. That’s a gain of $80 and a return of 17.39% – in one day!

I myself am up a little less than 10% so far.  Hopefully I too will be out in a couple more days with a nice double digit gain.

Got a great email from a member about how he made some quick profits from the recent volatility…

“Allen,
 
I had a wonderful two days with this volatility, by changing your procedure slightly.
 
The changes I implemented are:
 
1. When it looks like we are in a bearish market, do only the bearish call spread and NOT the bullish put spread. Do the converse when in a bullish market.
 
2. In a volailte market that whipsaws, do not close out both the high and low strikes simultaneously. Rather close out the short position first, since that is the one costing us the maintenance requirement. The long position has no impact on the maintenace margin requirement.
 
This is what happened:
 
On Thursday May 06, being my birthday, I wanted to try my luck at Day Trading with options, since the market looked quite volatile!
 
Did a RUT May 720/730 bearish call spread. Bought the 730 call at 2.39 and [...]

Got the following question this week:

First, thank you for providing a great service. I have been trading options for about a year and have learned a lot from your tips and alerts.

Now, I have a question about position sizing.  I am trading $100k of my funds using your alerts. When you send out an alert I multiply the number of contracts by 10 when putting on the trade. My question is: instead of just multiplying the contracts, can I use a combination of increasing the contracts and/or increasing the width of the strikes?

For example, if the alert was to sell 2 SPX 1200/1210 Calls, instead of selling 20 10 point spreads, could I sell 10 20 point spreads? What would be the pros/cons of doing something like this?

It seems to me, if I widen the strikes, then when I need to make an adjustment, I could sell the near strike [...]

Hi, I just went through the course.  I have a question on the iron condor.  I had subscribed to another site that did those.  They said they picked strike prices far away from the current price so that the odds were better than 90% that they would make money.  Of course the market started to gyrate 100s of points per day and everyone was holding their breath for days. So I learned that these spread trades are not boring at all but can be extremely stressful.  I was glad to see that you weren’t just touting you make money 90% of the time.  I see that all the time but they fail to explain that you can lose 100% of your money up to 10% of the time.  That makes the strategy not conservative at all.  So my question is how much capital would you allocate to iron condors?  Also, [...]

In my last post I listed a Free Trade on POT which is called a Calendar Spread, also known as a Time Spread.

In that trade we sold the Oct 90 Calls and Bought the Nov 90 Calls.

The trade makes money when POT stays in range around 90. Basically what we want is the Oct option to decay and lose value while the Nov option (which we bought) retains its value. Time Decay quickly erodes an option’s value, especially in the last 30 days. That is why I prefer to put these types of trades on with 30 or fewer days left for the front month.

We enter this trade with a debit meaning we paid for the trade. That is because the Nov option was more expensive than the Oct option because the Nov option has more time premium.  POT also has earnings after the Oct option expires which means that the volatility (value) of the Nov option will be elevated (at least a little more than normal).

What we want is for POT to stay in between the break evens until it gets close to expiration. The Oct option loses value everyday and that is how we make money. During the last few days before expiration the fluctuations in prices can move wildly.  That is why I prefer to be out of this trade before expiration week. But in this trade we put it on pretty late and will have to stay in longer.

To exit a Calendar Spread you have to sell it. Otherwise you will still be holding the back month (Nov) option even if the front month (Oct) expires.

The beauty of Calendar Spreads is that they are cheap to trade, easy to adjust, and can result in large profits – 20-40% is common. You can also keep your losses small.

I got this trade idea from a very smart member. His observation was that POT

was channeling and that it would be a good set up for an income strategy.

The only problem was that earnings are after expiration which is in 10 days.

Earnings could move the stock but it also keeps the volatility of the options

high and that means high premium.  There is also a dividend to be paid on the 15th, which is one day before expiration. A dididend will lower the price of the stock by the amount of the dividend which in this case is 10 cents.

His idea was a butterfly. I decided to do a calendar because it is easier to adjust and share it here.

Buy 1 Nov 90 Call and Sell 1 Oct 90 Call. This trade cost me $315. My breakevens are at 86.14 and 94.40.

I feel this trade will work. But it will have to be held close to expiration. 

If POT gets outside the breakevens, exit the trade. or if you are experienced enough, add another calendar on the side of the brreakout.  If POT stays around 90, stay in as long as you can.