Comments on: Fee Trade: PCLN http://optiongenius.com/blog/fee-trade-pcln/ The Option Genius Blog Tue, 15 May 2012 16:09:12 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: syed http://optiongenius.com/blog/fee-trade-pcln/comment-page-1/#comment-406 syed Thu, 11 Mar 2010 19:42:46 +0000 http://optiongenius.com/blog/?p=247#comment-406 Can anybody look at these trades I am thinking to do. What you think: xlf PUT sep.2010 $18 xlf PUT Apr.2010 $16 iyr PUT jan.2011 $50 iwn put jan.2010 $70 slf put jan.2010 $36 (canadian) mfc put apr.2010 $22 Can anybody look at these trades I am thinking to do. What you think:

xlf PUT sep.2010 $18
xlf PUT Apr.2010 $16
iyr PUT jan.2011 $50
iwn put jan.2010 $70
slf put jan.2010 $36 (canadian)
mfc put apr.2010 $22

]]> By: Thor Zollinger http://optiongenius.com/blog/fee-trade-pcln/comment-page-1/#comment-405 Thor Zollinger Thu, 11 Mar 2010 16:30:48 +0000 http://optiongenius.com/blog/?p=247#comment-405 A 90% success rate is pretty darn good. Most systems are down in the 55 to 60% range and make up the difference with tight money management. A 90% success rate is pretty darn good. Most systems are down in the 55 to 60% range and make up the difference with tight money management.

]]> By: Genius http://optiongenius.com/blog/fee-trade-pcln/comment-page-1/#comment-404 Genius Thu, 11 Mar 2010 16:12:26 +0000 http://optiongenius.com/blog/?p=247#comment-404 I never said this trade has a 90% chance. i dont think I even looked at the probability on this one. The system I have been testing is getting 9 ouf ot 10 trades correct. I never said this trade has a 90% chance. i dont think I even looked at the probability on this one. The system I have been testing is getting 9 ouf ot 10 trades correct.

]]> By: Sonny Garcia http://optiongenius.com/blog/fee-trade-pcln/comment-page-1/#comment-403 Sonny Garcia Thu, 11 Mar 2010 06:25:14 +0000 http://optiongenius.com/blog/?p=247#comment-403 If this trade has the 90% chance you say, then 9 trades would yield 9 x $164 = $1496 and the one loser would be $1836. Does not look good to me! If this trade has the 90% chance you say, then 9 trades would yield 9 x $164 = $1496 and the one loser would be $1836. Does not look good to me!

]]> By: John http://optiongenius.com/blog/fee-trade-pcln/comment-page-1/#comment-401 John Wed, 10 Mar 2010 15:39:32 +0000 http://optiongenius.com/blog/?p=247#comment-401 Just one more comment to add to the fundamentals as to why this might be a good trade to look at..... This morning, Citigroup believes the market is undervaluing aspects of Priceline.com and reiterates a Buy rating on the stock with a $275 price target. Just one more comment to add to the fundamentals as to why this might be a good trade to look at…..

This morning, Citigroup believes the market is undervaluing aspects of Priceline.com and reiterates a Buy rating on the stock with a $275 price target.

]]> By: R http://optiongenius.com/blog/fee-trade-pcln/comment-page-1/#comment-400 R Wed, 10 Mar 2010 13:18:11 +0000 http://optiongenius.com/blog/?p=247#comment-400 I like this type of trade, however I believe the timing is off for an entry. The uptrend no doubt is in place but this is a volatile stock and its current bullish run appears to be reaching maturity / exhaustion. I would feel more comfortable entering at a break out or cross over from a retracement at which point I might move up in Delta's for higher premium and obviously higher risk. Keep the ideas flowing ! I like this type of trade, however I believe the timing is off for an entry. The uptrend no doubt is in place but this is a volatile stock and its current bullish run appears to be reaching maturity / exhaustion.

I would feel more comfortable entering at a break out or cross over from a retracement at which point I might move up in Delta’s for higher premium and obviously higher risk.

Keep the ideas flowing !

]]> By: Maxima http://optiongenius.com/blog/fee-trade-pcln/comment-page-1/#comment-399 Maxima Wed, 10 Mar 2010 06:21:16 +0000 http://optiongenius.com/blog/?p=247#comment-399 At a glance the trade appears a good one. But it's too soon to make this trade. The stock has tested the 238 level the second time but it couldn't spear through it. If it's out of steam, it'll go down to 220.59 which is still higher than 210. However, R/R ratio is over 11/1, kinda risky giving the capability of the stock's swing in the past. Fundamentally, the stock is average to its industry. If it spears through 220.59 the next level would be 206.45 on the down side. 206.45 is lower than your recommended sell put of 210, at this level this trade would have lost big time. Next earning is in May so we are ok here. Over all I wouldn't make this trade. Too risky for me. Thanks for sharing! At a glance the trade appears a good one. But it’s too soon to make this trade. The stock has tested the 238 level the second time but it couldn’t spear through it. If it’s out of steam, it’ll go down to 220.59 which is still higher than 210. However, R/R ratio is over 11/1, kinda risky giving the capability of the stock’s swing in the past. Fundamentally, the stock is average to its industry. If it spears through 220.59 the next level would be 206.45 on the down side. 206.45 is lower than your recommended sell put of 210, at this level this trade would have lost big time. Next earning is in May so we are ok here. Over all I wouldn’t make this trade. Too risky for me. Thanks for sharing!

]]> By: claude 1255 http://optiongenius.com/blog/fee-trade-pcln/comment-page-1/#comment-398 claude 1255 Wed, 10 Mar 2010 02:48:47 +0000 http://optiongenius.com/blog/?p=247#comment-398 All the indices dji, spx, and nasdaq are very near their yearly resistance . I' d wait a few days , Either they'll break through or hit it and turn around and go down. I' d wait for a pull back below their 7 ma line at least before placing this trade. Also the profit to loss ratio is very high. Profit $164.00 max loss $1836.00. not exactly very advantageous, I think. I don't like the odds. All the indices dji, spx, and nasdaq are very near their yearly resistance . I’ d wait a few days , Either they’ll break through or hit it and turn around and go down.
I’ d wait for a pull back below their 7 ma line at least before placing this trade.

Also the profit to loss ratio is very high.
Profit $164.00 max loss $1836.00. not exactly
very advantageous, I think. I don’t like the odds.

]]> By: Thor Zollinger http://optiongenius.com/blog/fee-trade-pcln/comment-page-1/#comment-394 Thor Zollinger Tue, 09 Mar 2010 23:36:03 +0000 http://optiongenius.com/blog/?p=247#comment-394 The stock is currently near the top of the trading band and likely to either scrape along the top of the band for a while, or it could drop to the bottom of the band in short order taking out your spread. I would wait until the stock moves to the bottom of the band, then sell a put spread and ride it up going with the overall trend. I've found trading against the trend is difficult unless the trend slope is less than 0.6 Standard Deviations per month. A put spread is the correct move, since the trend is upwards. The probability distribution curve is easier to bracket behind the trend, especially if you wait until the stock is in the bottom of the band, since the maximum counter-trend excursion is limited to the width of the trading band (about -0.8 std dev's). A call spread wouldn't generally work, since the distribution curve extends too far out ahead of the stock to bracket effectively, peaking at +1.1 std dev's and extending out as far as +4 std dev's. The stock is currently near the top of the trading band and likely to either scrape along the top of the band for a while, or it could drop to the bottom of the band in short order taking out your spread. I would wait until the stock moves to the bottom of the band, then sell a put spread and ride it up going with the overall trend. I’ve found trading against the trend is difficult unless the trend slope is less than 0.6 Standard Deviations per month.

A put spread is the correct move, since the trend is upwards. The probability distribution curve is easier to bracket behind the trend, especially if you wait until the stock is in the bottom of the band, since the maximum counter-trend excursion is limited to the width of the trading band (about -0.8 std dev’s). A call spread wouldn’t generally work, since the distribution curve extends too far out ahead of the stock to bracket effectively, peaking at +1.1 std dev’s and extending out as far as +4 std dev’s.

]]> By: BAM http://optiongenius.com/blog/fee-trade-pcln/comment-page-1/#comment-393 BAM Tue, 09 Mar 2010 23:13:27 +0000 http://optiongenius.com/blog/?p=247#comment-393 I'll take 90% all month long. I'd like to see more of these. Although 8.9% for tying up your money for 38 days might be a little low, maybe some other stocks would show a beter return. I’ll take 90% all month long. I’d like to see more of these. Although 8.9% for tying up your money for 38 days might be a little low, maybe some other stocks would show a beter return.

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