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	<title>Option Selling &#187; Market Direction</title>
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	<link>http://optiongenius.com/blog</link>
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		<title>Market Commentary</title>
		<link>http://optiongenius.com/blog/market-commentary/</link>
		<comments>http://optiongenius.com/blog/market-commentary/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Sep 2009 21:31:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Genius</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Philosophy of Option Selling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Direction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Prediction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Option Selling]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[A unique answer to the question, "Which Way Is The Market Headed?"<p><a href="http://optiongenius.com/blog/market-commentary/">Market Commentary</a> is a post from <a href="http://optiongenius.com/blog">Option Selling</a>.<br/>

To learn how you too can earn 8-12% Monthly Returns Safely and Conservatively check out <a href="http://www.optiongenius.com">OptionGenius.com</a><br/><br/></p>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="color: #000000;">I frequently get asked which way I think the market is headed. Especially after the event of recent days where the markets have been on a sprint to the upside but with pull backs the last couple days.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000000;">I usually respond the same way every time.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000000;">&#8220;I don&#8217;t know.&#8221;</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000000;">If I could predict the market I wouldn&#8217;t be here blogging, I would be out enjoying my billions. </span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000000;">Believe me, I have tried to learn how to predict the markets. That&#8217;s what technical and fundamental analysis is &#8211; an attempt to understand and predict market direction.  In the end, I gave up. </span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000000;">I cannot predict market direction. The pundits on TV and radio can&#8217;t do it, all the blogs and gurus online with their fancy explanations, charts, candles, lines, and waves can&#8217;t do it with any regularity and neither can the folks on Wall Street.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000000;">So why bother?</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000000;">Why not trade in a way where it doesn&#8217;t matter which way the market moves? </span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000000;">Makes sense to me. And that is why I love option selling.  It does not matter what is going on in the market, what news comes out or doesn&#8217;t, the premium I sell loses value everyday, and I profit.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000000;">Let me give you an example. This month I have a McDonald&#8217;s (MCD) trade on. I want MCD to stay within a range. A couple days after I put the trade on, MCD moved higher and almost out of the range. So I adjusted the trade and made the range bigger. </span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000000;">That day a member emailed me with news that there is a rumor going around the MCD is going to raise its dividend. That might be why it went higher. And if the news about the dividend is correct, it might go higher still. </span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000000;">This member wanted me to know that this trade was not a good idea. He was warning me to what could happen. Thanks to this member, who had my best interests at heart, I began to worry about this position.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000000;">What if he was right and MCD shot up higher?</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000000;">But after a while I calmed myself down and realized that it was not in my hands. If MCD went higher I would evaluate the position, adjust if possible or in the worst case scenario take a small loss. But the odds were on my side.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000000;">As it turned out, MCD has behaved fine since and the trade is right in the middle of the profit zone. Let&#8217;s hope it stays that way.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000000;">But my point is that it does not matter if the dollar is stronger or weaker. It does not matter what oil or gold do. The markets still move in ranges and if you play the ranges, 8 times out of 10 you will win. And those wins allow you to make much higher returns that you will in a savings account, a CD, a money market fund, or a mutual fund.</span></p>
<p><a href="http://optiongenius.com/blog/market-commentary/">Market Commentary</a> is a post from <a href="http://optiongenius.com/blog">Option Selling</a>.<br/>

To learn how you too can earn 8-12% Monthly Returns Safely and Conservatively check out <a href="http://www.optiongenius.com">OptionGenius.com</a><br/><br/></p>
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