Podcast – Episode 129- The Bitcoin Cage
Hey, it’s Allen again, from Option Genius. And today I learned something that I want to share with you. Over this weekend, this past weekend, I attended virtually a conference. And it was an investment conference on basically it was on funds. So how to, it was for people who want to have a fund like hedge fund or a real estate fund or crypto fund at all, there’s so many different types of funds. And so they put all the people together in a room and they had speakers come and talk about the different things that they’re doing and how you can do it, and how you can get investors to give you money and how you can build your track record and all this kind of stuff. So currently, I am thinking about doing that. And so I went there, and one of the speakers was a guy by the name of John Pennington, you can look him up John Pennington, he’s probably a billionaire, or if not, he’s worth several 100 million dollars.
About a year ago, he took his company public, they were a fund, they were a real estate fund. So they were using investors to give them money. And then he would go out and buy real estate and do loans and stuff like that. And they made it to build it up pretty good—several billions of dollars of assets. And then they took the company public. And he was the I believe he was the president or the co-founder, one of them and then he retired. So now he has a lot of time on his hands. But he’s still a very smart guy, because you don’t build up a company and go public, you know, and make millions or millions of dollars if you’re not a smart guy. So he took the stage. And he talked about a couple of different things. One of the things he talked about was he what he calls the Bitcoin cage. Now, I want to give him complete credit for this because I hadn’t thought about this. This is his thing.
I don’t know if he got it from somewhere else. But he brought this in spoken to everybody. And it was very interesting. So I’m telling you this not because we’re going to be making money, I will not be selling options on Bitcoin or anything like that. But I want to also show you how other people think and how when you’re investing, you need to be looking two or three steps down the road, to really understand what is going on in the markets. It’s not just hey, I want to buy this stock is gonna go up and sell puts because it’s going up. Yes, that’s just kind of what we do. Right, simplicity wise, but long term, we have to also know what’s going on.
So Ray Dalio, the guy who has the biggest hedge fund in the world is another guy, he has written several books. And he’s been talking a lot about the reserve currency, as the dollar is currently the reserve currency of the world, meaning that most of the trade around the world is done in dollars. So that’s very, very, very, very, very important for the United States. And if they stopped being the reserve currency, the dollar stops being the reserve currency, it’s going to be very negative for our economy, our country, our debts, borrowing money, all that stuff, taxes are gonna go up all kinds of crazy stuff is gonna happen. And at this point, China really wants their currency to be the reserve currency. They don’t want the dollar, they don’t like the dollar anymore, and Russia is trying to get everybody off the dollar, as well. So it’s gonna be interesting, the next 1520 years, see what happens with that, but call him John, John Pennington, the guy who’s talking. According to him, the Fed-its main mandate there number one mandate is to keep the dollar the reserve currency. That’s what he says is that their most important goal, their most important objective is to do that. Now a few years ago, nobody ever heard of Bitcoin, right?
But bitcoin is billed as a currency is that’s where it’s supposed to be used to buy stuff with itself stuff with it, right now, because of the US tax laws, it’s not really a currency, right? Because you pay taxes on it, every time you sell it, every time you buy something, you paying taxes, you got to record all that stuff, that’s crazy. So until they get rid of that, it’s never really going to be a true currency. But still people are using it to buy stuff with. And so it’s gaining more and more traction. And it’s unregulated by any government. So that’s the appeal to it, right? And there’s no one government that can take away your Bitcoin or and they actually found ways they can, but technically, you’re not supposed to do that. And so the federal government, obviously, you know, there’ll be the they got smart people that work in there, they’d be like, well, you know, this Bitcoin thing, it might take over as the reserve currency of the world, and they’re going to replace the dollar, that’s not gonna be a good thing. And so the Fed is thinking, okay, so how do we stop that?
How do we not allow that? So before I tell you how they did that, let me give you a little bit more background. In the 2000s JP Morgan was manipulating the price of gold. Yes. JP Morgan, the bank was manipulating the entire gold market. So they were keeping prices within the range that they wanted to they were not letting go up nine where they say you can look this up and they were fined by the s&c. You know people found out about it, they were fined about it. And, you know, most people didn’t even hear about it, they were fined a billion dollars, because of their manipulation. And this went on for nine years. So that’s a lot of manipulation. And JP Morgan, you know, it’s a big bank. But if you compare it, the resources that they have to the Fed, it’s nothing, because they only have a certain amount of cash and serve on a market cap that they can tap into news, the Fed can print money as much as they want. They like unlimited supply of cash.
And over the last several years, they’ve been printing, printing printing, and I’m sure nobody knows where all that money that the printing went to. So I’m sure the Fed has, you know, taken some of that money and done other things with it. That was just a footnote somewhere. Oh, yeah, $50 billion, went to this program over here. Nobody knows what it is. Right? And so John, he made the inference that if JP Morgan can manipulate and control the gold market, gold market is 10 times with Bitcoin, it’s, it’s way bigger than Bitcoin. Really even greater than that. I mean, it might be more than 10 times larger than Bitcoin at this point. So if JP Morgan with limited resources can manipulate a market 10 times bigger than Bitcoin, it means the reason that a fed with unlimited resources could easily manipulate the Bitcoin market. Make sense? Do you see what I’m going on here? I’m trying to connect the dots here. So what John was saying is that the Fed is manipulating the Bitcoin. And they bought up a lot of Bitcoin when it was at lower prices. And now as it gets higher and higher, they are selling the Bitcoin that they have. So they’re keeping a lid on prices, because we had a lot of people mentioning later, oh, yeah, Bitcoin should be at 100,000, it should be valid should be at 200,000. Because every day, there’s less and less Bitcoin out there. It’s been mined. So it’s, it’s not like there’s an unlimited supply, eventually, they’ll stop making it. But that supply, that’s the amount of mining that they’re doing is becoming less and less and less. So basically, all a bit, most of the Bitcoin is already out there.
There’s a small percentage of it, that needs to be mined yet. But people lose their Bitcoin all the time, people put their money in their wallet, and then the guy dies. And nobody knows where their bitcoins just gone, where it can be stolen or hacked. And there’s so much Bitcoin has been lost just because people forget their passwords. So the supply of Bitcoin is going down, that shouldn’t be sending the prices up just by itself, but it’s not. And so John is saying that the Fed is purposely keeping the price down, because they don’t want interest in Bitcoin. If Bitcoin prices got super sky high, everyone’s gonna be buying it, everyone’s gonna start using it, all that stuff, they don’t want that to happen. And so they’re purposely keeping prices down. And what they what they’re trying to do is most of the people who trade Bitcoin who buy bitcoin, they’re doing technical analysis, right, so they look at the charts and the Bitcoin chart is going up, they’re gonna start buying and holding, and if the charge is going down, then they’re gonna leave it alone or sell. And so the Fed wants to create a chart of Bitcoin where it’s slowly, slowly, slowly, lower highs, lower highs, lower highs, very bearish looking chatter, so that the people avoid Bitcoin and move on to something else invest in something else. And so Bitcoin eventually falls out of favor.
Now they can do this for the next 15-20 years. People live on Bitcoin rises. It’s crazy, but it’s very possible. Now, is this accurate? Is this going to happen? The Fed really doing this? You might be thinking, Oh, conspiracy theory, conspiracy theory meaning, right, maybe that’s what it is. But it makes sense. Is it doable? Yes. Is it in the favor of the Fed to do that? And the US government, if not the Fed and the US government or somebody else, you know, that wants to keep the dollar as a reserve currency? Yes, it is in their favor. And Bitcoin becomes the world’s reserve currency. Whoa, big shocks all around the world, especially in the United States. So it was just eye opening to me to even hear that see is like, wow, okay, you know, this is some next not just next level thinking, this is like four stories up thinking, right? This is the kind of stuff that these guys talk about, think about. And it’s like playing investing is like playing chess, right? You don’t just think one or two moves ahead, you got to think 1520 moves. That’s how the Masters do it, then the grandmasters they think, like 30 moves ahead. So that’s how they become grandmasters. So this is the way people think on Wall Street and how they obviously there has, you know, I mean, I don’t even know JP Morgan was manipulating gold prices. I didn’t know that but they people know about it. And if that’s possible, then there’s a whole bunch of other things that are possible as well. They shouldn’t be done. But they are being done. And if the government is doing it, then all bets are off because nobody’s gonna go to jail eludes me, we’re gonna find out about it. Probably. Right? So that is the Bitcoin cage. I know, we didn’t talk about options or trading or anything like that. But, you know, I just wanted to put it out there and be like, hey, look, there’s other ways to think. And you can’t just look at one thing and be like, okay, Bitcoin, yeah, it’s gonna go up because of XYZ. Well, there are other factors involved. So you got to look at all the offshoots as well. And when you make your investment thesis, so, you know, whatever you’re investing in, look at all the different angles, think about it, you know, talk to other people that might have contrary views to what you’re thinking. If you’re if you’re a Bitcoin bold, then talk to people who think bitcoins going to zero.
You know, Warren Buffett said that Charlie Munger says that, why are these guys idiots? No, they’re pretty smart. But they have reasons. So find out what those reasons are and then find out why and listen to it and keep an open mind. And then head yourself. Always head yourself. So yes, I still own Bitcoin. I’m hoping it goes 200,000. But this talk did keep me from buying more. So we’ll see what happens. Right? We’ll see what happens. He might be right, he might be totally off but if Bitcoin doesn’t go up 200,000 over the next 10 years, then we’ll know that he was right. Be crazy if he was anyway. So that’s it for this episode. I’ll talk to you guys soon. Bye.
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